Build up in US Crude stocks and revival of Iranian Oil in the markets pushed Oil lower

Prathamesh Mallya

By Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One Ltd

Gold

On Thursday, Spot gold edged higher by 0.11 percent closing at $1798.6 per ounce. Slow growth in US economy dented markets risk appetite in turn boosting appeal for the safe haven Gold.

US GDP grew by 2 percent in the third quarter of 2021, recording its slowest pace in over a year reflecting dismal employment data, disrupted supply chains and resurgence of the virus.

Signs of slow growth in the US economy reduced bets towards a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

Also, a softer US Dollar and retreating US treasury yield boosted appeal for the safe haven Gold ahead of the important central bank meets.

Worries over the ongoing inflation sticking around for longer than expected continued to support Gold as it is widely considered as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement.

Investors are expected to have a keen eye on the upcoming US Federal Reserve meet scheduled in the first week of November 2021.

Depreciating US Dollar following slow growth in the US economy is expected push Gold towards weekly gains.

Crude Oil

On Thursday, WTI Crude plunged over 0.2 percent to close at $82.8 per barrel. Oil prices continued to trade lower as build up in US Crude inventories and resumption in Iranian talks with the world power on its nuclear programmed pressured market sentiments.

As per reports from the Energy Information Administration, US Crude inventories increased by 4.3 million barrels in the week ending on 22nd October 2021 surpassing market expectation of a 1.9 million barrels.

However, Oil prices headed towards weekly gains as potential shortage concerns amid increasing global demand strengthened market sentiments. OPEC & its allies sticking to its scheduled increase in production despite of a tight global Oil market has also been supportive for Crude prices.

While Coal and energy prices have eased in China following government intervention, prices remain elevated in the rest of the world as falling temperature is expected to increase demand for fuel.

Worries over resumption of Iran supply in the global markets amid increasing US Crude inventories is pushing Oil towards its first weekly loss since August’21.

Base Metals

On Thursday, most industrial metals on the MCX traded higher in line with the international markets as mounting supply concerns amid revival in global demand might lead to a shortage in the global markets.

Aluminium prices reversed some of its losses in yesterday’s session gaining over 2.2 percent as markets expected the supply to remain tight following stern power consumption norms in major producer China might keep the supply tight for the light metal.

China’s stated planner announcing to intervene and bring record high prices of the fuel back down to a “reasonable range” led to the recent fall in coal prices. Chinese officials planning to conduct “clean up and rectification” work on coal storage sites and further cool down coal prices eased potential supply threats which weighed on Aluminium and other industrial metals.

Copper

On Thursday, LME Copper ended higher by 1.24 percent whereas MCX Copper prices gained over 0.7 percent as potential shortage concerns overshadowed the easing coal prices and pushed prices higher.

Further supporting Copper were the potential supply threats arising from Peru. Protestors blocked the road used by Peru’s Antamina copper and zinc mine earlier this week after the company failed to honor its commitments to the local area. Another local group has been protesting on the road leading to the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru since last week for similar reasons. Peru, the world’s No. 2 copper producing nations, produced 2.15 million tonnes in 2020.

Power consumption norms in China is expected to continue to hamper Aluminium supply chain which might continue to levy some support for Aluminium prices.