Mumbai, August 16: India’s steel consumption is projected to rise to 192 million tonnes (MT) by 2030, up from around 149 MT in FY2024-25, reflecting an annual growth rate of about 6-7 per cent, according to a report by the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX).
The outlook points to sustained growth in steel demand as infrastructure development, construction activity, manufacturing and the transition towards higher-value industrial products continue to reshape the domestic steel market.
The report, launched at the Global Commodity Conclave, said the next phase of India’s steel growth would not be driven merely by higher volumes. The industry is increasingly expected to focus on value-added steel, cleaner production technologies and effective management of price risks.
Construction and infrastructure currently account for around 59 per cent of India’s steel consumption. Their combined share is expected to increase to between 60 and 63 per cent by 2030, underscoring the importance of roads, railways, urban development, housing and other infrastructure projects to the country’s steel demand outlook.
The report estimates that India’s infrastructure project pipeline could generate an additional 25-30 MT of steel demand as bottlenecks related to logistics, financing and project execution are gradually addressed.
The broader government investment push is also supporting demand. The Ministry of Steel has projected India’s total steel demand at around 230 MT by FY2030-31, with building and construction and infrastructure identified as the principal growth engines.
While volume growth remains important, the report highlights an emerging opportunity for Indian steelmakers to move up the value chain.
India continues to import certain advanced and application-specific grades even as exports remain concentrated in comparatively lower-margin products. The government’s Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for specialty steel is intended to address this gap and encourage domestic production of higher-grade products.
According to the report, PLI 1.0-1.2 represents more than Rs 55,000 crore in committed investment.
Demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, capital goods and advanced manufacturing could create new opportunities for domestic steel producers. The shift means that competitiveness will increasingly depend on the ability to manufacture steel tailored to specific industrial applications rather than simply increasing tonnage.
Recent government data indicates that the domestic steel market has maintained strong momentum in 2026.
Finished steel consumption reached 14.33 MT in May 2026, registering a 9 per cent year-on-year increase. During April-May 2026, finished steel consumption stood at 27.36 MT, up 8.7 per cent compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.
The Ministry of Steel attributed the growth to sustained demand from construction, infrastructure and manufacturing sectors.
India’s total crude steelmaking capacity has also reached approximately 220 MT per annum in FY2025-26, keeping the sector on course towards the National Steel Policy target of 300 MT capacity by 2030-31.
The projected increase in steel consumption also brings a significant environmental challenge.
The MCX report estimates India’s steel industry emissions intensity at around 2.55 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude steel, compared with approximately 1.4 tonnes in the US and 1.9 tonnes in the European Union.
The report expects the share of blast furnace-based production to increase from around 42 per cent to 56 per cent by 2030, making decarbonisation efforts increasingly important.
Steel producers are therefore looking at a combination of renewable energy, energy-efficiency measures, increased scrap utilisation, green hydrogen and carbon capture technologies to reduce the carbon intensity of production.
The expected increase in consumption is likely to drive further investment in steelmaking capacity, technology and downstream manufacturing.
The National Steel Policy envisages 300 MT of crude steel capacity and 255 MT of crude steel production by 2030-31, while also targeting higher domestic availability of high-grade automotive steel, electrical steel, specialty steels and strategic alloys.
For Indian steel companies, this creates a dual opportunity: expanding production to serve a growing domestic market while increasing the share of specialised, higher-margin products.
The trajectory also reinforces India’s position as a major growth market for steel at a time when demand in several developed economies remains comparatively subdued.
India’s projected rise to 192 MT of steel consumption by 2030 highlights the scale of opportunity emerging across the domestic metals and manufacturing ecosystem. However, the next stage of growth will depend on more than capacity expansion.
For steelmakers, the focus will increasingly be on product quality, cost competitiveness, supply-chain efficiency and carbon reduction. For downstream industries, rising domestic availability of specialised steel could strengthen local manufacturing and reduce dependence on imports.
With infrastructure spending, urbanisation and industrial investment continuing to support demand, India’s steel industry is entering a phase where both volume and value creation are expected to determine its long-term competitiveness.
