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Tag: ANAROCK Group

Unlocking Growth – Real Estate’s Wish-list for Union Budget 2024-25

Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Group

 

Anuj puri

With Union Budget 2024-25 set to be tabled in July, the real estate sector pins renewed hope on the Modi 3.0 regime. Expectations are high for tax reliefs and other sentiment boosters. The future of the overall industry also depends on unfettered infrastructure deployment to support and improve urban living standards as well as to develop and promote newer areas.

Will the government finally decide to give in to the long-standing demand for industry status for the entire housing sector? Will it take ‘real’ measures to revive the affordable housing segment, which has been on a steady decline after the pandemic?

The Indian housing sector remained upbeat in 2024 till date, with housing sales and new launches creating new peaks in the top 7 cities. Sales reached an all-time high at about 4.93 lakh units in FY23-24, while 4.47 lakh units were launched.

However, this momentum must continue in the future too – and the current growth trajectory is skewed towards mid-range and premium housing. Considering the specific housing needs of India’s lower-income groups, this momentum cannot ride solely on higher-priced homes while affordable housing continues to languish.

As per ANAROCK Research, the sales share of affordable housing reduced significantly after COVID-19 – from over 26% in 2022 and over 38% in 2019 to approx. 20% in Q1 2024. Due to low demand, this segment’s share of the overall housing supply in the top 7 cities also fell to 18% in Q1 2024, from nearly 40% in 2019.

Many interest stimulants previously extended to buyers and developers of affordable housing have expired in the last two years. This important segment must be revived with high-impact measures like tax breaks – for developers, so that they will focus more on affordable housing, and for buyers to improve affordability.

Other measures to reignite affordable housing would be:

Credit-linked subsidy scheme under PMAY

This scheme for EWS/LIG, which expired in 2022, should be revived to incentivise first-time buyers of affordable homes across cities. This will onece again invigorate demand in this segment. Subject to criteria specified under government guidelines, CLSS was previously available for housing loans to EWS/LIG buyers in new constructions, and for the addition of rooms, kitchen, toilet etc. to existing dwellings. Also, under PMAY (Rural), one could avail of this subsidy for all ‘kaccha’ homes being converted into ‘pucca’ ones, provided they fulfil the eligibility criteria.

Re-introduce 100% Tax Holiday for affordable housing developers

To boost supply and incentivise developers to build more affordable housing, the government can re-introduce the ‘100% Tax Holiday’ benefit they previously enjoyed under section 80-IBA in the Finance Act, 2016. This section provided for major tax relief on the profits earned from developing and building affordable housing projects.

Tweak definition of affordable housing criteria to widen additional deductions benefits to more buyers

According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, affordable housing is defined based on property size, price, and buyers’ income. For instance, affordable housing is a house or flat with carpet area up to 90 sq. m. in non-metropolitan cities and towns, and 60 sq. m. in major cities and valued for both. The central bank’s definition, on the other hand, is based on the loans given by banks to people for building a house or buying apartments.

The government must seriously reconsider revising the pricing of homes within the affordable housing budget, taking into consideration city-specific market dynamics. As per the current definition, the size of units at 60 sq. m. carpet area is appropriate. However, prices of units  are not viable across most cities.

Election Fallout – Will Hyderabad’s Realty Market Falter

11 June 2024 – The Hyderabad real estate market will be significantly affected by the outcomes of the recent general election. On the back of a strong political comeback, there is likely to be greater emphasis on infrastructure and pro-business policies. This will draw in more IT firms and other industries, increasing the demand for commercial real estate.

Fresh development initiatives and improved connectivity may draw additional investment to remote locations.

Housing Sales

According to ANAROCK Research, Hyderabad’s residential market has exhibited robust growth between 2021 and Q1 2024, with a cumulative total of approximately 218,800 new residential units launched and 154,300 units sold. 2023 witnessed a peak in activity, recording nearly 76,300 units launched and 61,700 units sold.

This represents a significant increase of 48% and 143% respectively, compared to figures from 2021.

Housing Prices

Prashant Thakur, Regional Director & Head – Research, ANAROCK Group, says, “Property values in Hyderabad also saw a substantial rise between 2021 and Q1 2024. On average, prices appreciated by 45%, reaching INR 6,350/sqft in Q1 2024 from INR 4,372/sqft in 2021.”

West Hyderabad, the zone with the highest concentration of office spaces, has seen even stronger growth. “Average residential capital values in this region have increased by 52% in the same period. Currently, the average price per square foot stands at INR 7,200,” says Thakur. Land prices, which had appreciated by over 30% in the last three years, have contributed significantly to the price hikes.”.

The peoples’ mandate in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh with a large majority and an important ally at the center may lead to moderation of real estate growth in Hyderabad. Land prices in Hyderabad had appreciated by over 30% in the last 3 years. This had influenced prices rises across asset classes in the city.

Conceivably, the volume of residential real estate launches in the city may also rationalize as investors and buyers scout for competitive opportunities in Andhra Pradesh – which is expected to witness a surge in development along the new growth corridors.

Andhra Pradesh’s potential development can be a double-edged sword for Hyderabad real estate. However, the overall impact is likely to be positive as Andhra Pradesh’s growth could spark a ripple effect, attracting businesses and investors to the entire region.

This could lead to increased demand for office and commercial space in Hyderabad, especially along key corridors like the Hyderabad-Vijayawada highway. This area is already being primed for development with infrastructure projects and industrial parks, making it a potential growth engine for Hyderabad real estate.

While the outlook is promising, there are challenges. Some out-migration of businesses or residents to Andhra Pradesh is possible, especially if AP offers lucrative incentives. This could draw some investments away from Hyderabad, leading to a temporary correction in Hyderabad’s real estate prices and a potential dip in the commercial real estate market.

However, the presence of a large talent pool and developed infrastructure of the city, with enhanced connectivity, could make it difficult for companies to venture into a new state in the short term. While Hyderabad’s established infrastructure, strong IT base, and cosmopolitan character are unlikely to diminish significantly, the impact on the city’s real estate market will be influenced by how development unfolds in Andhra Pradesh.

Strong Fundamentals

Hyderabad is the nearest mega cosmopolitan centre for both the states, and this makes it an attractive destination of the population of the neighbouring cities and towns. It is a preferred location for the people from Andhra Pradesh, as the city offer opportunities for higher education, employment, entertainment, advanced healthcare needs and shopping for special occasions.

It is therefore not surprising that there is significant influx of housing buyers from the adjoining state.

Hyderabad’s real estate boom has strong fundamentals driving it. The city’s IT-ITeS sector, infrastructure development, and overall business ecosystem are likely to sustain demand for quality housing and commercial spaces.

The city’s economic activities are well diversified and not limited only to the services sector. There are equally strong and able industrial, manufacturing and logistics sectors along with healthcare and education that drive the demand for real estate in the city. Property price appreciation might be moderate going forward. However, a drastic decline seems unlikely, given the strong underlying demand. Overall, the long-term outlook for Hyderabad’s real estate market remains positive. Nevertheless, national market trends and the evolving situation in Andhra Pradesh bear watching.

Development of Amaravati

Mr. N Chandrababu Naidu has already proved his mettle in developing Hyderabad as a major city with world class infrastructure, and was successful in attracting major IT-ITeS, pharmaceutical and industrial companies to the state. This has been instrumental in generating employment and attracting talent from across the country, thus also spurring rapid real estate development. Now, the recently concluded election mandate has renewed the prospects of Amaravati in Andhra Pradesh.

While this dream project was shelved by the previous government, there are now very distinct possibilities of its revival. However, developments of a new capital city and the massive eco-system it entails is a task of epic proportions. Despite all political will and support, it will take time to fructify – and to emerge as real competition to Hyderabad.